Tomorrow - Kyiv

Russia's big assault on Kyiv is coming tomorrow, or maybe in two or three days.  With Russian supply lines what they are, who knows?

This will be pivotal.  This is where Ukraine wins or loses, and it seems that Zelensky has laid out his plans accordingly and Kyiv is well defended. 

We've seen quite a bit about grandma's and breweries making molotovs (banderevsky smoothies) but have yet to see them in action, at least on the telegram channels I follow.  The attack on Kyiv seems to provide the optimal conditions for such weapons, along with, of course, the javelins and other anti-tank weapons the west had provided.  A city of tall apartment blocks surrounding wide streets, a veritable shooting gallery for the defenders.  Every balcony a sniper's nest, every rooftop a platform for RPG's.  A modern, densely populated metropolis like Kyiv is every infantry commander's worst nightmare.  

Then you have the column, trapped on the roads because of bad vehicle maintenance, plagued by delays and disruptions, and highly vulnerable to attack by Ukrainian drones and SU-24s, as Russia has yet to attain control of the skies.  

I say the attack will begin in the next 72 hours - it may not end for many days, of it ever gets off the ground at all.  Were I a Russian soldier in that predicament, I would sooner face the wrath of my commander than the vengeance of the 🔱 trident.  I would sooner take my chances as a POW than on the urban battlefield.  Hungry, cold, and wet, the attackers are demoralized, confused, and in apparent disarray.  Only a madman would order such an attack, which is why I'm sure it's coming.  For the sake of the abused and discarded Russian soldiers, I hope it never actualizes.  For the sake of the future of Ukraine, I hope the Russians come in at full force and hot the iron will of the defenders, and the waves of attackers are milled against the paving stones.

However, a Ukrainian victory in Kyiv is not yet a Ukrainian victory.  To the south the true targets of Russian aggression remain under Putin's clenched fist - the water supply to Crimea (and the peninsula itself), and the gas fields of Donbas.  To retake these requires a regrouping of forces, and a concentrated push led from Kyiv that will leave the capitol less heavily fortified, should Russia muster more forces to the north.

I hope for a severe humiliation of Russia, brought about by the will and patriotism of the blue and gold.  The fog of war clouds all, and it's anyone's guess as to how things will turn out.