How This Ends

There is only one way that the war in Ukraine will end.  The complete elimination of the Russian Federation's ability to wage conventional war.  

This of course entails an utter and complete humiliation of the Russian leadership and Putin himself.  It requires that Russia be reduced in status to a level more befitting its economic and technological ability.  

Such a degradation is absolutely necessary because anything less is simply a chance for Russia to rearm and continue the conflict 5 or 10 years later.  If Ukraine is successful enforcing a Russian retreat out of the currently occupied territories this will become a self-fulfilling prophecy.  Western oil companies will develop the oil gas and coal fields that this war is all about.  That will lead to a collapse of the Russian economy, their GDP reduced in half due to the inability to export fossil fuels to Europe as Ukraine replaces Russia as the main supplier.  In such circumstances Russia will be unable to rearm itself, and meanwhile Ukraine will prosper with the windfall from the fossil fuel exports and continue its leap forward as a nation of high technology and high-tech manufacturing that began in 2014.

This will be ruinous for the Russian elite as the foundation of their economy crumbles beneath their feet.  However, the effect on the Russian people will be somewhat less given that so many of them already live in destitute conditions.  There are three different ways for the Russian people to move forward after such a defeat.

The first is to continue to subject themselves to the name propaganda pushed out by the government controlled media in Russia.  This will result in an even greater brain drain from Russia as anyone with ability or means will flee the country and those left behind will find themselves living in a new North Korea.  

The second is the slow revolution, as if hitting a reset button back to 1991 and Russia will suffer another decade or more of lawlessness and floundering as it attempts to find its own path forward.  By the time it emerges from the "wild decade", fossil fuels will be a thing of the past but perhaps they will make up the difference with lithium reserves or titanium, or some other natural resource.  The Russian people will have to fight all the same battles that they have fought for the last 30 years all over again.

The last one is the one that is best for everyone involved, except the Russian elite of course.  That is that the Russian people do what the Ukrainians did in 2014 and throw off the shackles of their history, liberalize their values and their economy and embrace the 21st century instead of the 19th.  Belarus came close to this a few months ago, and it seems to be the trend for all of the former Soviet states in Europe.  It remains to be seen whether Russia is European enough to move forward.

I think that we will start to see increasingly rapid advances by the Ukrainian forces within the occupied territories.  Well the number of artillery units still fastly favors the Russian side, the Ukrainian artillery has more accurate targeting based on Western intelligence, it has greater range, and it has more competent gun crews.  Additionally, the Ukrainian artillerists are targeting military targets which degrade Russia's ability to fight, while much of Russian artillery is wasted on civilian targets, which will make rebuilding more difficult, but will not break the spirit of Ukraine and don't result in any advantages on the battlefield.

At some point the Ukrainian advances will cause even greater demoralization among the Russian troops who will start to fear the Ukrainians defending their homeland more than their own officers who shoot them in the back if they refuse to fight.  Many of the Russian officers may also begin to see the light and realize that with the world aligned against Russia there is no victory in sight.

Russia's Desperation

 

Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF): Russia is entering a state of desperation, and strikes against civilian targets will intensify in coming weeks.  Americans should exercise enhanced caution for the next three weeks and expect many strikes against civilian targets throughout the country, including the L’viv region.

 

Longer version:

 

Given the recent barrage of cruise missiles the Russians have launched in Ukraine, I assess the security situation in the country has worsened significantly for the next few weeks.  The G7 meetings over the last week were disastrous for the Russian cause, where the leaders of the world’s largest economies expressed strong support for Ukraine, stating that their support, both military and financial, would remain until the conflict is resolved on terms set by the Ukrainian government.  The Ukrainian government has stated that their goal is to return to the 1991 borders, to include Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk in their entirety.  Additionally, Russia is feeling pressure as NATO conducts exercises in Georgia near Russian occupied territory, and Lithuania has stood firm against the EU with the “blockade” of Kaliningrad.  The NATO rapid response force is increasing eightfold to 300,000 troops.

 

Тhe war in Ukraine is unwinnable by Russia.  Over the last week around a dozen large Russian ammunition depots have been destroyed in the occupied territories with the longer range artillery that the USA has recently delivered to Ukraine and has just recently seen first use on the battlefield.  Multiple long range systems are already in Ukraine, and many more on the way, with French, German and UK systems being fielded over the next month.  While the quantity is still far less than the Russians possess, the quality, greater range, and vastly improved targeting make them far more effective.  Ukraine is receiving a nearly unfiltered feed of intelligence information from the UK and USA, and can now target command posts, ammo depots, and other strategic targets with near impunity, and has been doing so very effectively in the past few days. 

 

Meanwhile, Russia has been unable to effectually target military objectives within Ukraine, instead focusing on eroding the civilian infrastructure and degrading the will to fight.  This is a terrible miscalculation on Russia’s behalf, as they are hoping to induce a state of panic and desperation, but instead are only hardening the resolve of the Ukrainian people and the civilized countries of the world who support Ukraine.

 

It is critical to account for Russia’s interests in this conflict.  When Ukraine gains control over the occupied territories a countdown timer will start for Russia, and when the timer gets to zero the Russian economy will collapse.  Western fossil fuel interests are poised to develop the oil and gas fields in Donetsk and Lugansk regions, which, while small compared to the total Russian reserves, are more than enough for Ukraine to replace Russia as Europe’s source of fossil fuels.  This spells disaster for Russia, whose economy is propped up by fossil fuel exports to Europe, a sector that cannot be replaced in the near term.  Even before the war the Russia-China pipeline was operating at capacity, and the loss of European demand and renegotiated oil prices on Chinese terms at far below market value severely threaten the Russian economy.

 

Russia cannot gain meaningful military victories on the battlefield against Ukraine.  While they make minor territorial gains in the Donbass region, they are losing ground in the South near Kherson and have suffered tremendous losses in the three week battle for the city of Severodonetsk.  Within Russia itself there have been dozens of fires at critical military infrastructure points associated with the war in Ukraine, including military manufacturing facilities, ammunition storage sites, and several train derailments of military supplies headed for the front. 

 

To their own disadvantage Russia has exhausted the world’s patience with negotiation, broken treaties and bad-faith arrangements which are honored by the Kremlin only until Russia can gain the upper hand.  Ukraine rightly assumes that no treaty or agreement with Russia can be held in good faith, and only the total destruction of Russia’s ability to wage war can end the conflict.  The war in Ukraine is an existential conflict for Russia – a loss of the Crimean Peninsula and Donbass region would be a critical blow that would take decades to recover from.  Russia’s only remaining strategy is to target civilian infrastructure and attempt to force Ukraine to sue for peace at terms where Russia will maintain at least partial control of the occupied territories.  Ukraine’s resolve, however, shows no signs of abatement, and despite losses the Ukrainian army has been very effective. 

 

I still assess the use of nuclear weapons as unlikely, but my faith in my own assessment is at a low point.  The consequences of using nuclear weapons, even at the tactical or operational level against military targets, would be far more disastrous for Russia than even the war-induced sanctions and isolation so far.  The Russian choice is stark – give up one-third of their economy and a total loss of their influence on European affairs, or use nuclear weapons and hope that the world sues for peace.