How This Ends

There is only one way that the war in Ukraine will end.  The complete elimination of the Russian Federation's ability to wage conventional war.  

This of course entails an utter and complete humiliation of the Russian leadership and Putin himself.  It requires that Russia be reduced in status to a level more befitting its economic and technological ability.  

Such a degradation is absolutely necessary because anything less is simply a chance for Russia to rearm and continue the conflict 5 or 10 years later.  If Ukraine is successful enforcing a Russian retreat out of the currently occupied territories this will become a self-fulfilling prophecy.  Western oil companies will develop the oil gas and coal fields that this war is all about.  That will lead to a collapse of the Russian economy, their GDP reduced in half due to the inability to export fossil fuels to Europe as Ukraine replaces Russia as the main supplier.  In such circumstances Russia will be unable to rearm itself, and meanwhile Ukraine will prosper with the windfall from the fossil fuel exports and continue its leap forward as a nation of high technology and high-tech manufacturing that began in 2014.

This will be ruinous for the Russian elite as the foundation of their economy crumbles beneath their feet.  However, the effect on the Russian people will be somewhat less given that so many of them already live in destitute conditions.  There are three different ways for the Russian people to move forward after such a defeat.

The first is to continue to subject themselves to the name propaganda pushed out by the government controlled media in Russia.  This will result in an even greater brain drain from Russia as anyone with ability or means will flee the country and those left behind will find themselves living in a new North Korea.  

The second is the slow revolution, as if hitting a reset button back to 1991 and Russia will suffer another decade or more of lawlessness and floundering as it attempts to find its own path forward.  By the time it emerges from the "wild decade", fossil fuels will be a thing of the past but perhaps they will make up the difference with lithium reserves or titanium, or some other natural resource.  The Russian people will have to fight all the same battles that they have fought for the last 30 years all over again.

The last one is the one that is best for everyone involved, except the Russian elite of course.  That is that the Russian people do what the Ukrainians did in 2014 and throw off the shackles of their history, liberalize their values and their economy and embrace the 21st century instead of the 19th.  Belarus came close to this a few months ago, and it seems to be the trend for all of the former Soviet states in Europe.  It remains to be seen whether Russia is European enough to move forward.

I think that we will start to see increasingly rapid advances by the Ukrainian forces within the occupied territories.  Well the number of artillery units still fastly favors the Russian side, the Ukrainian artillery has more accurate targeting based on Western intelligence, it has greater range, and it has more competent gun crews.  Additionally, the Ukrainian artillerists are targeting military targets which degrade Russia's ability to fight, while much of Russian artillery is wasted on civilian targets, which will make rebuilding more difficult, but will not break the spirit of Ukraine and don't result in any advantages on the battlefield.

At some point the Ukrainian advances will cause even greater demoralization among the Russian troops who will start to fear the Ukrainians defending their homeland more than their own officers who shoot them in the back if they refuse to fight.  Many of the Russian officers may also begin to see the light and realize that with the world aligned against Russia there is no victory in sight.